[1.09战网]AMA GA穿刺问题 [复制链接]

首先说明我想知道的问题是，我的GA发出去，在不考虑格挡、躲避等其他因素，平均来讲，可以击中对手几次？

从我搜的一些资料，先谈两个数字，最多穿刺4次，最高穿刺概率为95%。也就是说，依次GA最多打击对手5次；大炮的100%穿刺实际上是95%。
接下来看一张ama的穿刺表：
技能等级  穿刺几率   加成后的伤害乘数  下一档次应累加伤害乘数     1         2        3         4        5        
0                   0                1.00                          0.30               1.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    
1                  23               1.30                          0.21               1.00    0.23    0.05    0.01    0.00    
2                  34               1.51                          0.19               1.00    0.34    0.12    0.04    0.01    
3                  42               1.70                          0.20               1.00    0.42    0.18    0.07    0.03    
4                  49               1.90                          0.21               1.00    0.49    0.24    0.12    0.06    
5                  55               2.11                          0.16               1.00    0.55    0.30    0.17    0.09    
6                  59               2.27                          0.16               1.00    0.59    0.35    0.21    0.12    
7                  63               2.44                          0.08               1.00    0.63    0.40    0.25    0.16    
8                  65               2.52                          0.20               1.00    0.65    0.42    0.27    0.18    
9                  69               2.72                          0.11               1.00    0.69    0.48    0.33    0.23    
10                71               2.83                          0.10               1.00    0.71    0.50    0.36    0.25    
11                73               2.93                          0.12               1.00    0.73    0.53    0.39    0.28    
12                75               3.05                          0.12               1.00    0.75    0.56    0.42    0.32    
13                77               3.17                          0.12               1.00    0.77    0.59    0.46    0.35    
14                79               3.29                          0.07               1.00    0.79    0.62    0.49    0.39    
15                80               3.36                          0.14               1.00    0.80    0.64    0.51    0.41    
16                82               3.50                          0.07               1.00    0.82    0.67    0.55    0.45    
18                83               3.57                          0.06               1.00    0.83    0.69    0.57    0.47    
19                84               3.63                          0.08               1.00    0.84    0.71    0.59    0.50    
20                85               3.71                          0.07               1.00    0.85    0.72    0.61    0.52  
21                86               3.78                          0.08               1.00    0.86    0.74    0.64    0.55    
22                87               3.86                          0.07               1.00    0.87    0.76    0.66    0.57    
23                88               3.93                          0.08               1.00    0.88    0.77    0.68    0.60    
24                89               4.01                          0.09               1.00    0.89    0.79    0.70    0.63    
26                90               4.10                          0.08               1.00    0.90    0.81    0.73    0.66    
27                91               4.18                          0.08               1.00    0.91    0.83    0.75    0.69    
31                92               4.26                          0.08               1.00    0.92    0.85    0.78    0.72    
33                93               4.34                          0.10               1.00    0.93    0.86    0.80    0.75    
36                94               4.44                          0.09               1.00    0.94    0.88    0.83    0.78    
38                95               4.53                          0.08               1.00    0.95    0.90    0.86    0.81    
42                96               4.61                          0.10               1.00    0.96    0.92    0.88    0.85    
45                97               4.71                          0.10               1.00    0.97    0.94    0.91    0.89    
49                98               4.81                          0.09               1.00    0.98    0.96    0.94    0.92  
54                99               4.90                          0.10               1.00    0.99    0.98    0.97    0.96    
60                100             5.00                          0.00               1.00    1.00    1.00    1.00    1.00    

接下来我们来看AMA穿刺的模型(假设穿刺概率为P)：
GA出去lock对手，判定①此时是否穿刺；此时穿刺不生效概率为1-P，总次数为1，结束。如果穿刺生效，概率为P，总次数为2，待续。
继续判定②，穿刺不生效，结束，总次数为2，概率为P*(1-P)。生效，概率为P*P，总次数为3。
一直持续到第四次判定。
根据这个模型，我们可以得出，打击次数的期望=1*(1-P)+2*P*(1-P)+3*P*P*(1-P)+4*P*P*P*(1-P)+5*P*P*P*P
利用强大的excel，我们可以得到，大炮的打击次数期望约等于4.52。
再来看查表看3个重要的等级20/22/24，其穿刺概率分别是85%、87%和89%。
算出来期望分别是3.71、3.86和4.01。

好了，理论上我们要的数字出来了，大炮的GA打击次数平均为4.52，穿刺等级在20/22/24的时候，平均次数分别为3.71、3.86和4.01。

接下来就看哪位帅哥有空帮我实验一下，看我的计算方式对不对，也希望神级版主狼王来指点。

你就不能多射几次！